Americans are not happy with their federal government, and Tuesday’s mid-term election is expected by most experienced prognosticators to give Democrats a slim majority in the House, picking up between 20 to 35 seats.

Voters cannot seem to get over the Iraq War, President Bush’s low job ratings, Republicans’ self-inflicted scandals, opposition to stem cell research and our nation’s high budget deficit. The most conservative Republican voters are expected to stay home, Independents who do cast ballots are more likely to vote Democratic, and the Democrats smell victory and majority control of the House – something they have not enjoyed since 1994.

A bevy of Gubernatorial races and wide-ranging state ballot initiatives (from pot to slots) will turn out more Democrats at the polls, adding fuel to the fire for a return to power by Democrats in the House. Gambling, same sex marriage, voting rights for former prisoners, dove hunting bans, medical marijuana and inducements for voters to win money through a lottery are some of the issues for voters to consider.

The House is currently made up of 229 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent and 4 vacancies, including Mark Foley (R-FL) who resigned after the recent page scandal, former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) who was indicted, Bob Ney (R-OH) who pleaded guilty to inappropriate favors for lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) who was appointed to the Senate by former Senator and now Governor John Corzine.

One non-partisan pollster shows 349 of 435 House seats as either solid Democratic or Republican, so less than 100 seats even have a chance to switch party control. There are 11 open Democratic seats and 21 open Republican seats, where Members have resigned, retired or are running for other offices.

A mid-term election switch of 15 seats would propel the Democrats to a majority, and everyone is expecting this outcome. Potential Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has already pledged to bring civility back to the House. She wants to run the chamber in an equitable manner, proposing dozens of rule changes that would offset “the tyranny of an overreaching GOP majority.” Some of Rep. Pelosi’s proposed changes include allowing more amendments to bills on the House Floor, along with restrictions on trips by Representatives, no fundraising from January to June each year to focus more on business and less on getting re-elected, and the creation of an outside ethics panel to review future Member violations.

The election of leaders in the 110th Congress and proposed rule changes will set the tone for business over the next two years in the House. The slim majority that will be held by Democrats will allow the “Blue Dog” Democratic bloc to control the balance of power on many issues. Blue Dog Democrats are social and economic conservatives and centrists in the United States Democratic Party. The Blue Dog Coalition is a reference to the "Blue Dog" paintings of Cajun artist George Rodrigue of Lafayette, Louisiana; the original members of the coalition would regularly meet in the offices of Louisiana representatives Billy Tauzin and Jimmy Hayes, both of whom had Rodrigue's paintings on their walls (and both of whom later switched to the Republican Party).

The Blue Dog Coalition was formed in 1994 under the 104th Congress as a way for more conservative Democratic Members of Congress to have a unified voice in Congress. It currently has 37 members.

Another development to watch for after the election is political party switching that might alter the landscape. Majority-minority numbers are significant for Committee assignments, the legislative agenda and the ability to override Presidential vetoes.

Democrats are not as smug about the election in the House as to be measuring for draperies in their newer, larger majority offices, but the nation’s mood for change in the House is very real.

Michael Fulton joined GolinHarris in 1988 after working 10 years for two Members of the House, and he heads up our agency’s Government Relations Practice.